The Betfair Handicap Hurdle is always a cracking competitive race and this year is no exception. Recently, the race has been won by top class animals like Zarkandar, My Tent or Yours, Get Me Out Of Here who have all either won or placed at the Cheltenham Festival. The ill fated Darlan was another class horse to run in the race but fell when most likely going to win in 2012. Make no mistake about it this race is targeted by the big stables on route to the festival with an improving young horse that is still ahead of the handicapper.
Horses that fit the profile are Far West, Irish Saint, Dell ‘Arca, Smashing & Vendor who all are just 5 years old except for the last named Vendor. The ground will be very testing if racing goes ahead and all the above named will handle conditions as proved by past performances. Bet365, Skybet & Paddy Power are all paying out on 5 places and as a result we will take two against the field.
However, I want to go against the trends with one selection (see further down page) so which of the above named horses is a value bet. Irish Saint has been well touted and gets in here 7lbs below his revised handicap rating. That means according to the handicapper he will be forced to carry 7lbs extra in his next handicap race.
Dell ‘Arca is an expensive 280k purchase that won well in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting before unseating his rider last time out. He is still unexposed and David Pipe like his father likes to target this race. Far West ran a big race when second to Melodic Rendevouz in a Grade 2 before flopping last time out. Paul Nicholls discovered the reason for that poor run was stomach ulcers which have been treated since. Expect him to bounce back to form whilst Vendor will relish the underfoot conditions and has returned to form like Alan Kings stable recently.
Smashing is a chaser in the making and the English handicapper is taking no chances making him run off a rating of 143 here compared to his 135 rating in Ireland .That is very harsh and seems systematic of how Willie Mullins handicappers are treated when competing in the UK. Willie does not have a great record in the UK with handicappers and with Smashing being forced to race off an 8lb higher mark it is easy to understand why!
Ok, so after all that the young improving horse I want onside today just has to be Irish Saint. Why turn down a horse that we already know has 7lbs up his sleeve before any further improvement is considered. He will relish a fast run two miles on heavy ground and Noel Fehily retains the winning partnership have won easily at Ascot over two and a half miles last time out. His price is short enough at 6/1 but realistically I cannot see him not placing in this race if he avoids trouble in running.
Right, no surprises above with Irish Saint the favourite but the next selection will not be the fancy of many a punter. That horse is Alaivan who looks very well handicapped on his juvenile and novice hurdling form. As a juvenile he finished 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham and reached a hurdle rating of 145 at his peak during his novice hurdling season in 2011. He was purchased by JP McManus back in 2011 before injury kept him off the track until this season. The handicapper has relented following two poor efforts dropping him to a rating of 130. Last time out his showed some improvement to finish 2nd and if his enthusiasm for the game is ok he looks thrown in here off 130 with jockey Maurice Linehan claiming an extra 5lbs on top. Jonjo O’Neill knows how to prepare a horse for a tilt at a valuable handicap prize and I fully expect a huge run from Alaivan at 14/1 who we know handles heavy ground.
Selection: 1/2 point *EW Alaivan Newbury 15:35 at 14/1 Bet365 & Skybet else 12/1 PaddyPower all offering 5 places
Selection: 1/2 point *EW Irish Saint Newbury 15:35 at 13/2 PaddyPower else 6/1 Bet365 & Skybet all offering 5 places
Best of Luck,
Nicky
